Written by Laëtitia Noël,
Co-authored by Arthur Puybertier,
Translated by Héloïse Thouin,
Proofread by Rachel Ducept.
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Published on October, 23th, 2022.
What is the current situation in Brazil?
On October 2nd, the first round of the presidential election took place, opposing twelve candidates. Among them are the current president since 2018, Jair Bolosnaro, and Lula, the former president from 2003 to 2011. The results of the first round gave 48.4% of the votes to the left-wing candidate Lula, leader of the Labor Party, against 43.3% of the vote to his extreme-right-wing opponent.
Together, they count 91.6% of the votes, which illustrates the weak weight of the other ten candidates. Regarding abstention, it has never been that high since 1998, rising to 20%. The country is expecting its second round on October, 30th 2022.
The two candidates have very different campaign strategies but have a common goal: reunifying a broken Brazil.
How do presidential elections work in Brazil?
This federal State lies on the majority system, as written in the 77th article from the Constitution of 1997, which states the organization of elections in October. If the candidate obtains the absolute majority after the first round, he or she is directly elected president. On the other hand, if there is not an absolute majority, a second round is organized four weeks later.
The voters are citizens aged between 18 and 70 years old, alphabetized, born or naturalized Brazilian, and are submitted to the mandatory vote since 1932: if they don’t vote, fines are addressed to them. Therefore, the system of an electronic vote, used since the 1990s, is strongly encouraged.
Focus on the candidates and on the stakes of the electoral campaign.
76 years old, marked by 580 days in prison, Lula ran for office in 2022, for the sixth time. Convicted in the corruption case of “Lava Jato'', he was cleared by the Supreme Court last year. He seeks a third mandate, keeping his program of “economic and social progress” which helped 40 million Brazilians to get out of poverty.
Jair Bolsonaro won the presidential elections in 2018 with 55.13% of votes after the second round, and he doesn’t seem to benefit from this same legitimacy. As a right-wing populist candidate, he has the support of evangelists and the military. His campaign is built around conservative values linked to the family and God, around mistrust of communism, the wish to ensure the security of all citizens and to improve the purchasing power of the Brazilian people.
What is the assessment of the 4-years mandate of Bolsonaro?
Those last four years have been affected by an environmental crisis in Amazonia. Current assessment: 40 000km2 of destroyed forest, 670 000 deaths as a consequence of the catastrophic management of the Covid crisis, 30 million Brazilians in eating insecurity, and an increase of “gunfire possession’s license” of 474%. However, the rise of the allowance “Auxilio Brasil” improves the purchasing power of the poorest. The candidate is still the target of numerous polemics, especially about his misogynist, homophobic, and racist remarks.
Thus, it seems likely that the second round will give Lula the benefit from the other candidates' voters' votes. Surveys, especially those from Datafolha, foresee a victory for the left-wing candidate next Sunday. It is nevertheless important to pay closer attention to the progression of Jair Bolsonaro during next week, especially after the accusations of censorship towards Lula.
Laëtitia Noël