Toward an upcoming invasion
of Taiwan

Political news calls into question China’s planned invasion of Taiwan

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Taiwan’s president is stepping down as head of her party following a defeat in local elections. Beyond a political defeat, the outcome of this election suggests a rapprochement between Taiwan and China in the near future. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen had brought to power her PDP party, which considers Taiwan as a sovereign state.

Since she took office, not only has Beijing cut off all communication with Taiwan, but also increased signs of an upcoming invasion. Although Tsai Ing-wen remains Taiwan’s president, these local elections give a run to an opposition victory in the 2024 presidential elections. This party is dominated par the Kuomintang party, which is more favorable to an alignment with China. The Chinese attempts to take over the country would no longer be countered by a government that would no longer defend its independence at all costs.

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Why does Taiwan not declare its independence?

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Well, it is not that easy. Indeed, if Taiwan were to declare its independence from China, it would be tantamlunt to a declaration of war.

In 2005, China adopted the “Anti-Secession Law of the People’s Republic of China”. Its second article recalls clearly that Taiwan is a Chinese territory, according to Shanghai: “Article 2. There is only one China in the world. Both the mainland of China and Taiwan belong to the same country.”

In practical terms, this law gives Chinese authorities legal grounds to use “non-peaceful means” to repress Taiwanese independence wishes. In October, during the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping precisely mentioned it. He does not reject the possibilities of resoting armed forces, if diplomatic means could not succeed.

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China uses historical levers to claim possession of Taiwan

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When it comes to Taiwan, the Chinese are the first to expose maps from the 11th century. These draw the “nine-dash line,” encompassing the entire maritime territory that would belong to China. However, in 2014, the authorities added a tenth line to this map, now including Taiwan. China also claims all the archipelagos in the China Sea, flouting the 1982 Montego Bay Convention and nibbling away at its neighbors’ EEZs.

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An offensive strategy prepared for a long time by China

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The PLA or People’s Liberation Army of China is meticulously preparing the invasion of Taiwan in three well-defined stages.

The first would be “lightning” to avoid any American response, through cyberattacks to weaken the Taiwanese government’s means of communication and to attack American satellites posted over the Pacific. This would pave the way for a total blockade and would allow a “control of the sky”, which the Russians did not succeed in setting up in Ukraine. The goal: a total destruction of all the infrastructure of the island.

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The second phase would be the “main invasion”, carried out by the amphibious bastions. The first target would be Taoyuan. The fourth largest city in the country, it has an international airport and oil refineries. The last phase would be a “generalization” of the fighting by sending armed troops on land throughout the island.

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Lucas Décornes